FAZ: Unclear where the money should come for Greece

The Ministers of Finance of the eurospace have made on her meeting on the night of Tuesday as expected still no decisions on the payment of the next loan tranche of 31.5 milliard euros in Athens. The boss of the eurogroup, prime minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker, called up an other meeting of the ministers for 20th of November. Till then the debatable points – the closing of the financing gap of the international auxiliary programme which amounts now to 32 milliard euros as well as the restoration of the Greek debt load-carrying capacity – should be cleared. After this meeting the arrangement found then must be still approved by the Bundestag.

EU-currency commissioner Olli Rehn said after the meeting of the eurogroup in the late Monday evening, for a short-term financing of the Greek state would be still provided if this must pay off his debts on Friday. This solution is also possible without help of the European central bank, Rehn said without calling details. At last emergency loans of the EZB had been under discussion for the bridging structure financing.
Unclearly where the money should come

In the principle the ministers were united as expected that Greece two years should receive more time to the achievement of his savings aims. This deferment causes that in the existing loan programme a financing gap of about 32 milliard euros originates. This number had transmitted the Troika from international monetary fund (IWF), EU commission and European central bank (EZB) in her report to the eurogroup.

The central issue, as this gap should be closed, stayed open first. Juncker and the managing manager of the IWF, Christine Lagarde, said, several possibilities would be available for it which would be checked everybody "impartially". However, these already became considerable differences between IWF and eurogroup in this question recognizable. „We have differences of opinion, we work on it, we try to solve them“, said Lagarde.
Quarrel about a new debt cut

As likely is valid in any case a mixture of the measures which go directly or indirectly also at the expenses of the taxpayers., Among the rest, it is remembered to give Greece with participation of the crisis funds EFSF or money ESM with which it can buy back his own state loans for lower prices. Almost certainly the interest is also lowered again which the Greek state must pay for his loans. Also a stretching of the payment aims is under discussion.

The IWF had demanded several times a new debt cut, this time with participation of public believers. Now Juncker said, he holds a debt cut under for "unlikely".

Even more openly the differences of opinion stepped between IWF and the euro-states with look at the restoration of the Greek debt load-carrying capacity by days. With it is believed that the country must be able to serve his debts permanently and not – like now again – over and over again gets in financing difficulties.

Lagarde stressed, the IWF sticks to the aim agreed up to now in the programme that the Greek national debt must sink till 2020 on a rate of 120 percent of the gross domestic product. Juncker said against it, one agrees in the eurogroup that at least the aim year could be shifted about two years to the back.

Lagarde made clear later once more that the fund will not get involved in such a lengthening. „It is about the fact that the Greek national debt becomes load-bearing again. Now for it the right decisions must be made“, said the IWF boss. „We have quite clearly different views.“

For the negotiations of the coming days this might mean that the pressure on Germany increases to agree, however, still to the second debt cut. Originally Greece should reach a debt state of 120 percent by the savings editions and reform editions from IWF and eurogroup till 2020. However, calculations according to the EU commission debt state of Athens rises from nearly 177 percent this year on just 189 percent in 2014.

faz.net

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Poor Greece, lucky Turkey

Even before the first auxiliary package was dispatched for Greece, I have pointed out several times in „handle drily“ to the fact that a second one must soon follow this. After this had been initiated, here I had announced the third one. As soon as this becomes now openly about the Bundestag or hidden above winding ways to the German taxpayer pharynxes heruntergewürgt, one can lace safely immediately the fourth package.
This is easy to foresee, because though a waiving of debts prevents a state bankruptcy, however, does not remove the main problem of the Greek economy. The shipowners in Piraeus, the textile manufacturers in Athens and the hotel keepers in the holiday kinds remain too expensive.
N of the long history of the conversions of debts of states (from Argentina and Russia still are to us in memory) there has never been such without concurrent devaluation. This is not possible in a single currency, as everybody knows. Even if one missed Greece instead of recent "haircuts" a bald head and remitted the country all debts, the Greek Minister of Finance would soon have to go again to the hairdresser.

Neighbour of Greece laughs to himself meanwhile in the little fist. The self-confident appearance of the Turkish head of government in Berlin may be annoyed to somebody; before the background of the dynamic economic development of his country he was entitled. If we remember: At the time of the introduction of the euro Greece and Turkey were in similar situation. Unemployment, inflation, state indebtedness were catastrophic in both countries, Greece seemed only because of getürkter figures to his neighbouring country consider.

A business development which could be hardly more different began in both countries with the euro. While a low euro-interest rate tempted Greek politicians to treble the national debts and saved the voters necessary reforms, nothing else was left to the Turkish colleagues, than to make the country by free-enterprise reforms more competitive.

If the Greek enterprisers had to watch helplessly how the euro of her goods and services at the world market made more and more expensive, the Turkish central bank and the Turkish politicians by a combination of devaluation of the lira and political reforms could improve the competitiveness of the Turkish economy constantly.

After the "Troika", consisting of representatives of the EU, EZB and IWF, countless times wanted to have seen in Athens according to the right, the chancellor could be also seen recently there. She should have gone equally wide to Istanbul. There she could have seen best what has escaped the Greeks by the euro. Turkey booms, the unemployment sinks which explodes number of the enterprise foundations, the tax base widens, the national debt rate is only half as high than with us. Long before chancellor Merkel Prime Minister Erdogan will present a well-balanced household.

In Istanbul she could be had declared be able from Erdogan, why no Turk still wants the euro. With her return she could also have asked the BDI sometimes, why the German industry invests so much in Turkey and so little in Greece. Honest answers to these questions would have brought them maybe on the idea that there are, nevertheless, alternatives to her euro rescue politics.

Hans-Olaf of handles, born in 1940 in Hamburg, author and fee professor is at the university of Mannheim. The long-standing IBM manager was known above all as a president of the federal association of the German industry (BDI).

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