The desponded country

"Καλές γιορτές", "Happy holidays" wished me my neighbour Panagiota, when I met her today at the train station. But really happily Panagiota did not work. The greeting sounded rather ironic, how „... nice mess!“ Two months ago Panagiota has lost her job in an Athens fashion boutique, the store had to surrender – one of about 70,000 bankruptcies in the Greek retail trade since January, 2011. Almost half of all stores stands on the Stadiou street, earlier one of the most animated shopping miles of Athens, empty.

Panagiota is 48 and she has only few chances to find a new job. Now the 4-headed family lives on the salary of the father. He is an official in the Greek foreign ministry and earns 1.159 euros net in the month. „We pull through only because our parents put on one side somewhat of her pension for us“, says Panagiota. However, also the old people have less and less: Now in the train of the latest savings decisions her pension is curtailed once more about ten percent. It is already the fourth shortening since beginning of the crisis.

What lies behind them, know the Greeks: In 2012 the blackest year was economically since end of the war. The unemployment reached a new record. From the eleven million Greeks only 3.7 millions have a job. Now the country goes to the sixth year of the recession – and the people ask themselves: What brings in 2013?

The mood is pressed. Nearly seven of ten Greeks, according to a topical euro barometre survey, are discontented with her life, eight of ten see her country „on the wrong way“. Only six of Hundred think that the situation makes amends during the coming twelve months.

But there is moments, there one scoops hope again. If possibly, like now, the rating agency raises standard & Poor's (S&P) of Greece credit standing of "SD" (Selective Default) about immediately six steps on "B-". Creditworthiness of Greece was valued so high at last in June, 2011. Also with the rating raised now Greek's Bond highly speculative arrangements remain. Even other six steps distinguish the country with S&P from the "investment degree", the league of the sure or on an average good arrangements. But, at least, the investors catch some hope again. To read is in it that the yield of the Greek 10-annual loan fell now on the deepest state since March, 2011. After she had still lain in summer at 30 percent, it amounts topically to 10.3 percent.

handelsblatt.com

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Poor Greece, lucky Turkey

Even before the first auxiliary package was dispatched for Greece, I have pointed out several times in „handle drily“ to the fact that a second one must soon follow this. After this had been initiated, here I had announced the third one. As soon as this becomes now openly about the Bundestag or hidden above winding ways to the German taxpayer pharynxes heruntergewürgt, one can lace safely immediately the fourth package.
This is easy to foresee, because though a waiving of debts prevents a state bankruptcy, however, does not remove the main problem of the Greek economy. The shipowners in Piraeus, the textile manufacturers in Athens and the hotel keepers in the holiday kinds remain too expensive.
N of the long history of the conversions of debts of states (from Argentina and Russia still are to us in memory) there has never been such without concurrent devaluation. This is not possible in a single currency, as everybody knows. Even if one missed Greece instead of recent "haircuts" a bald head and remitted the country all debts, the Greek Minister of Finance would soon have to go again to the hairdresser.

Neighbour of Greece laughs to himself meanwhile in the little fist. The self-confident appearance of the Turkish head of government in Berlin may be annoyed to somebody; before the background of the dynamic economic development of his country he was entitled. If we remember: At the time of the introduction of the euro Greece and Turkey were in similar situation. Unemployment, inflation, state indebtedness were catastrophic in both countries, Greece seemed only because of getürkter figures to his neighbouring country consider.

A business development which could be hardly more different began in both countries with the euro. While a low euro-interest rate tempted Greek politicians to treble the national debts and saved the voters necessary reforms, nothing else was left to the Turkish colleagues, than to make the country by free-enterprise reforms more competitive.

If the Greek enterprisers had to watch helplessly how the euro of her goods and services at the world market made more and more expensive, the Turkish central bank and the Turkish politicians by a combination of devaluation of the lira and political reforms could improve the competitiveness of the Turkish economy constantly.

After the "Troika", consisting of representatives of the EU, EZB and IWF, countless times wanted to have seen in Athens according to the right, the chancellor could be also seen recently there. She should have gone equally wide to Istanbul. There she could have seen best what has escaped the Greeks by the euro. Turkey booms, the unemployment sinks which explodes number of the enterprise foundations, the tax base widens, the national debt rate is only half as high than with us. Long before chancellor Merkel Prime Minister Erdogan will present a well-balanced household.

In Istanbul she could be had declared be able from Erdogan, why no Turk still wants the euro. With her return she could also have asked the BDI sometimes, why the German industry invests so much in Turkey and so little in Greece. Honest answers to these questions would have brought them maybe on the idea that there are, nevertheless, alternatives to her euro rescue politics.

Hans-Olaf of handles, born in 1940 in Hamburg, author and fee professor is at the university of Mannheim. The long-standing IBM manager was known above all as a president of the federal association of the German industry (BDI).

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